NYC – by nearly all objective measures – is doing great, so why is the Mayor’s approval rating down? Here is my year-end piece dealing with the recent past, Punditry and Prognostication. It is the time of year that we have set aside for such purposes; I am obliging.
The City budget is in greater monetary surplus than anticipated. Unemployment has plummeted, despite a growing population. Under any accounting, crime remains historically low, despite the abandonment of the quota for police stops and substantial reduction in such encounters.
The free full-time Pre-K program is expanding again without any serious glitches. With the correction officers contract just negotiated all of the major unions now have contracts and non-unionized City employees just got family leave by executive order. The City’s identification card (IDNYC) is extremely useful and has been launched successfully.
As the Governor continues to belittle the Mayor, Cuomo also continues to adopt his most popular policies i.e. the increase in the minimum wage that has just kicked in.
Yet, it remains the best of times and the worst of times. Good times have brought ever-greater demand for apartments, while the remaining rent protected housing in the City is being whittled away with each move-out and buy-out. The housing crisis also expresses itself as a homeless crisis. While unemployment has gone down, salaries for the average worker have not yet gone up, and worker budgets are busted by housing costs.
It was to be expected that those most tied to the wealth friendly Bloomberg era would take continuing credit for what is good and remain skeptical of the current mayor. It is to be expected that those who lost the last election, even those within de Blasio’s own party, and who lost their political jobs and favor – would snipe at the mayor. It was also to be expected that those who most closely identify with police officers would be antagonistic to a mayor seeking to reform the department.
What may surprise the casual observer is the criticism that de Blasio is taking from advocacy groups with whom he has been closely aligned. In part, he has raised expectations beyond possible performance; in part, these groups exist to oppose any status quo. They exist to advocate and agitate.
The mayor is, therefore, left with few cheerleaders despite much to cheer about. If no policy or performance can be acknowledged as good enough by his allies, then no mayor can be deemed successful.
As accomplished as I believe this administration has been so far, I do not find it to be flawless. Mayor de Blasio surely needs a better alarm clock both for showing up punctually, as well as filling middle and low level positions. His administration is also slow in responding to other public officials. The administration has been slow to pick up on dissatisfaction with implementation of its homeless policy. However, the administration has been willing to examine its deficiencies and attempt to correct them.
Going into the New Year, I anticipate the greatest problem for de Blasio will be gaining support to implement his housing policy. The administration keeps suggesting that the problem has been its inability to adequately explain the policy. I wish I agreed with that assessment, but I think the problem is rooted in an unhappy reality – not public relations.
What we want in terms of cost, amenities and “livability” cannot be delivered; what is promised in terms of enforcement of the rent laws is not trusted. I have done my best to convey my view of this reality. But the comments I get back in print and in person reject this reality and insist that some alternate truth must exist.
Without realistic alternatives, wishful thinking seems to be the only suggestion offered.
Think happy thoughts. I forecast a continued but gradual success for the administration caused by a slowing economy. Such success will be highlighted by the passage of mandatory affordable zoning text amendment – albeit in somewhat revised form.
Unfortunately, I suspect new policy will be accompanied by a continuation of suppressed approval ratings for a mayor who deserves accolades. Dissatisfaction and unease will continue to prevail, as our struggle to maintain our quality of life in a challenging city casts a shadow over the future. As my wife often says, “They’re sucking the life out of it.” It is not clear who “they” are, but surely that is the perception.
And Happy New Year.
